The speaker implies. The listener infers. Do not swap the jobs. The data imply a trend. From the data, we infer a trend. Diction as a set is in word choice.
Who is sending, who is receiving
Imply is to suggest without saying it outright. Infer is to draw the conclusion. If the sentence is about what a passage or a graph suggests, the usual verb is imply. If it is about what a reader concludes, use infer.
Passed versus past is another look-alike pair, in passed versus past. Affect versus effect is in affect versus effect. Grammar overall is in ACT grammar rules.
The bottom line
Sender: imply. Receiver: infer.
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